BMTI – Trend Experts for Shipping

Northern European coaster business—and indeed freight rates—have fallen to such lows that any mi­nor positive change in demand can be welcomed as a recovery. This seems to be the case, ironically during a historically lull period, for Baltic and North Sea-based short sea vessels. Charterers have been seeking more vessels out for July dates as lockdown con­ditions continue to ease around the Continent. There has certainly been nothing dramatic to point at, but the fact that any growth in inquiry is hap­pening makes for big news in this long slumbering sector. As such, owners are seeking premiums over last-done rates, and there are signs that next week could well see further gains as well. Trans-Baltic freights from the Baltic States to ARAG are seen fetching high teens again instead of the EUR 15/mt range general cargo freight of mid-June. Short trips between WCUK and ARAG are rumoured to have fixed EUR 10/mt on cargoes of 3,000mt compared to EUR 9/mt that was obtainable a week before. Southbound freights from Ireland to the western Med are being reported at EUR 20/mt, some EUR 2/mt higher than two weeks before. The extent and magnitude of this upswing remains to be seen, but owners are hopeful for the first time in some time.

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The current commodity price rally is in danger of outrunning fundamentals, Goldman Sachs warned this week, noting that strong downside risks remain in the agricultural and energy sectors. The warning was oriented more towards oil, which the bank has called ‘to much, too fast’ while it allowed that metals markets remain ‘extremely strong’ as recent Chinese infrastructure demands have exceeded expectations.

Export prices for Russian wheat remained relatively stable in recent days even as grain prices elsewhere, notably the US, suffered bearish pressure after the USDA upgraded its outlook for global wheat pro­duction by 4.9 Mt. Black Sea-based wheat values have been less prone to decline due to ongoing con­cerns about the crop conditions in Russia. Wheat loaded from Russian Black Sea ports is trading at US$ 205/mt FOB this week, essentially unchanged from the week before. Other estimates have the price closer to US$ 206/mt, also in sideways trend. Egyp­tian state grain buyer GASC purchased 120,000mt of Russian grain last week, also buoying sentiment and reducing overall supply. Russia exported 35.6 Mt of grain in the last eleven months, 14% lower than the same time a year ago, according to SovEcon data. State stockpiles are currently at around 0.4 Mt.

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In keeping with the broadly bearish trends across the northern European trades, the trans-Baltic rates have been declining with more or less steady progression with the high teens of early May fading into the middle teens of end-May and owners now happy to accept €15-16/mt range freight rates on general cargoes from the Baltic States to ARAG even as other hold out for last-done rates in the €16-17/mt range. Holidays and summer sluggishness have been the usual culprit for lower cargo demand, but the systemic slowdown around the global pandemic have given nearly every single sector of the European manufacturing economy plenty of reason to justify an increasingly negative bent in momentum for the early-to-mid summer season. Owners and charter­ers—let alone market observers—have been report­ing a wide range of freight values simply because there is so much space opening between demand for ships and available tonnage. There continues to be word of northbound freights in the range of €20/mt from the Adriatic to Ireland, but even there we hear word of owners claiming to be willing to accept €18/mt or thereabouts, the sort of rate that would have been unthinkable for a voyage with half of that duration just six weeks ago. The phrase ‘new normal’ has been overused by every analyst of the shipping economy, but conditions do seem to have entered an unknown reality that require excep­tional solutions to address exceptional challenges.

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Covid-19 is keeping the market under tight control and only in the East-Indian Ocean range is the virus loosening its grip. Rates seem to be improving with Ultramax tonnage fixable at US$ 6,500-7,000 daily for NoPac rounds. CIS charterers have also raised their ideas to US$ 4,500 daily on Supramax tonnage with delivery Japan via CIS to Vietnam. And from the EC India area, freight rates have increased to US$8,500-9,000 daily on tonnage of 56,000 dwt for a trip to China. An Australian round voyage was done at US$ 4,000 daily on tonnage of 32,000 dwt. As expected, rates have also gone up from South Africa with owners of a Tess 58 holding US$ 9,000 daily plus US$ 90,000 BB for front haul to China. The owners have multi­ple choices including US$ 8,000 daily plus US$ 80,000 BB to ECI. It is therefore understandable for the owners to wait and see and monitor the market.

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Despite the collapsing rate trend in some Capesize routes—notably the front hauls, which have drifted into the US$ 19,000s—there are signs of life in the Pacific giving owners hope for May. Aussie voyages hover at around US$ 4.1/mt, but with the slightest upside suggesting that US$ 4.2/mt and higher may well be obtainable for early-mid May dates. Time charter fixtures have also been emerging with up­wards of US$ 7,000 daily just secured by relet from China and back via E.Australia on a 177,544 dwt.

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The chartering market remains a lamentable play­ground for the shipowners who have no choice but to adapt to the challenges, which to meet is almost impossible. Off the Continent, Baltic Sea rounds for Kamsarmax vessels have dropped to around US$ 3,500-3,700 daily. An LME was covered ARAG via Baltic to the East Med at US$ 5,000 daily. Handysize tonnage of 34,000 dwt has allegedly been fixed from the Baltic to the West Med at around US$ 8,000 daily, whilst similar size tonnage has been traded at around US$ 5,000 daily from Baltic to the US Gulf. From Black Sea Post Panamax tonnage was fixed the equivalent of US$ 5,000 daily for a trip to the US Gulf. Handysizes of 37,000 dwt have been taken to the US Gulf as well at US$ 5,000-5,500 daily, which rate is also still applicable for Black Sea-Med trading. Owners of an over-aged 30,000 dwt fixed from the Black Sea to PG-India at a very poor US$ 7,000 daily.

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The chartering market in the Atlantic is slowly mov­ing forward. Ultramax owners have been demanding US$ 17,000 daily for a trip from the Baltic to South Africa. Handysize tonnage has been fixed for local trading at around US$ 9-10,000 daily depending on delivery. Olive and sand charterers booked at Han­dysize vessel able load around 30,000mt from Nor­way to Ghent at the daily equivalent of around US$ 11,000 daily. The vessel was getting ready in the port of loading, hence this average rate. A 30,000 coal parcel has been fixed from UK to ARAG aver­aging around US$ 9,500 daily with vessel open on the Continent. A couple of cargoes have also been fixed from Murmansk incl. 20,000mt to Klaipeda at around US$ 17/mt and around 40,000mt fertilizers to the Mississippi River in the low US$ 20s/mt. From the Black Sea, front haul activity has been very limited. The Handy market is not really progressing. Handysize grain charterers still have a good choice of tonnage, whilst admitting that the worst seems over. Fertilizers of 32,000mt from Tuapse to Tema have been rumoured traded at around US$ 22-23/mt.

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Adriatic Sea market: Imports have been strong into the Adriatic even as general volumes have slowed over the holidays and yearly transitional period. From Rostov, grains of 5,000mt (46′) can still fetch upwards of US$ 40/mt, though charterers are ap­plying pressure there. Import shipments to Ravenna have been strong with steels from Constanta fixing up to US$ 18/mt, corn of 6,000mt (48′) ex-Reni fixing circa US$ 27/mt, BHF of 4,500mt from Haifa getting US$ 22/mt and soybeans of 5,000mt (50′) fixing around US$ 25/mt. Pig iron on larger ship­ments of 15,000mt from Odessa have been reported as securing freights of US$ 20/mt to Ravenna.

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The holidays have continued to linger into 2020 with principals seemingly in no major rush to secure business as long as they can afford to push their requirements down the road. The unexpectedly high momentum that continued into early December and buoyed coaster markets across Europe (from north to south), remains technically in place as far as market fundamentals go, but spot freight trends are looking to move sideways at best into January with charterers expected to start applying more pressure as the month progresses. Owners remain hopeful, however, that adverse weather and their connected delays—as well as the relatively tight tonnage situ­ation of Q4-2019—will keep things moving in their favour for at least another few weeks, but time shall tell if Baltic markets break out of their traditional cycle and do not, in fact, start to slide in January as expected. Northbound freights from the Baltic States to Ireland are fetching decent rates of EUR 30/mt, brokers say, while southbound freights from ARAG (with 5,000mt general cargoes) are securing even better rates of EUR 37-38/mt and higher. There is word, however, that charterers have already secured discounts on those levels for end-month positions.

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[28 NOV 2019] Capital markets have not been overly enthusiastic about shipping in recent years, this past year being no exception, but, according to more than a few finance professionals, this is prime time for a turn­around in fortunes with smart money poised to see solid returns. This is also the opinion of Erik Hel­berg, CEO of Clarksons Platou Securities, who held a convincing presentation in Hamburg at the 23rd annual HANSA Forum for Shipping Finance. “Con­ditions are ripe for a turnaround,” Helberg said, indi­cating multiple reasons for investors to reassess a market that has weathered one of its toughest peri­ods in recent memory. Equity has done surprisingly well in 2019, said Helberg, with the possible ex­ception of LNG carriers, which saw their general performance fall by some 29% year-on-year. But this was the exception that proves the rule, so to speak, with equity returns in the majority of other shipping sectors having shown respectable-to-incredible re­turns in the year-to-date (indeed, shipping as a total entity, rose by 13% over the year). Container equity grew by a modest 5% this year, Helberg showed in a slide, followed by dry bulk with 11% growth and ship leasing companies with 30%. The highest end growth was in tankers, however, with handsome gains of 42%, 73% and 99% in 2019 in the equity areas of product tankers, crude tankers and mix tank­ers.

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Uncertainty looms in the European steel outlook, according to EU steel association EUROFER. A pre­sent “downslide” in the EU manufacturing sector is unlikely to bottom out soon, association director Axel Eggert said in a recent statement, noting “esca­lating trade disputes” between the United States and several of its main trading partners as well as continuing uncertainty about Brexit, both major fac­tors that could continue to have a dampening impact on the EU steel industry. EU steel consumption declined by 7.7% YoY in the second quarter of the year after falling by 1.6% in the first quarter. A com­bination of weakened exports and lower investment has taken a toll on steel use in the European Union, putting consumption at 39.3 Mt in Q2. The stock cycle, says EUROFER, turned negative in the quart­er, contrary to the seasonal pattern, worsening an already negative trend in final steel use. The down­turn in steel demand drove a 4% YoY fall in domestic deliveries in the EU in Q2 after a decline of 3% in Q1. A low-level stabilization in 2020, however, is seen, says Eggert, with an expected growth rate in consumption of 1.4% due to modest re-stocking.

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Sentiment rules for the volatile Capesizes with the end of the week bringing an unexpected bounce-back despite a nearly complete lack of fresh time charter activity in the last previous five days. Trans-Pacific RV freights—which had suffered the sharpest declines in the week—saw the sharpest improve­ments with around US$ 1,000 added to the assess­ment bringing the rates near US$ 23,000 daily. Voy­ages also benefited from the upturn with predictions of continued declines in the RBCT voyages eastward proving premature as rates flattened at US$14.5/mt.

The market for the Capes has turned down with new business hardly seen in any basin. A drop in spot freight rates is seen nearly throughout the routes with the trans-Pacific round voyage hovering around US$ 23,000 daily and the Atlantic counterpart dipping below US$ 24,000 per day. Coal trips from Southern Africa to ARA can be concluded hardly above US$ 9/mt while this commodity loading in Colombia is doing in around the high US$ 10s/mt to the same destination at the moment.

The Panamaxes seem to twinkle towards their bigger sisters as business is somewhat scarce and the spot freight rates cannot hold to last done levels. Fronthauls are talked in a range of US$ 25,000 daily for tonnage of 74,000 dwt but not much vessels are open for such trips. Young tonnage of 82,000 dwt is trying to get rates at some of US$ 15-15,500 daily.

Little amount of business is seen for the Supras with a 62,000 dwt carrying salt from Egypt Med to USEC at a rate in the high US$ 13,000s daily and tonnage of 58,000 dwt is rated in the high US$ 11,000s per day for trips from the Continent to the US Gulf. The Handysizes seem to take a pause. From Continent to USEC younger tonnage of 38,000 dwt is talked at rates in the mid US$ 13,000 daily

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