BMTI’s Handy Bulk Market Viewpoint (15-June-2017)

HandysizeThe chartering market is devoid of enthusiasm. The brief respite of increased demand earlier this week seems to have been misread as a trend reversal. On the other hand the gathering of shipping people in Greece and in Bergen certainly contributes to the slower conditions. From the Baltic, timber charterers are likely to put in own tonnage of 33-35,000 dwt for a trip to east med rather than taking in market tonnage. Grain charterers would like to cover 25,000 mt wheat from GNS to South Africa at US$ 22-23/mt, which given an earlier fixture of 45,000mt from the Baltic to South Africa at US$ 26/mt looks a bit silly. A 34,000 dwt was fixed to the USG at US$ 6,500 daily. Scrap charterers are trading Supra ton­nage at around US$ 10,000 daily to the eastern Med.

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Surge in Moroccan fertilizer exports (07-Jun-2017)

Handy bulk rumoured rising in South Atlanticmorocco fertilizers
The South Atlantic Handy bulk trades are rumoured to be seeing more interest for mid-month positions as ECSA trips to the Continent are said to be in talks for up to US$ 6,000 daily on Supramax tonnage. (p. 1)

Coasters: Trips to the north see steady rates
Northbound shipments from the Turkish Med to Ireland are getting steady freights of mid EUR 20s/mt with EUR 25.5/mt observed on a 5,000mt parcel. (p. 1)

Business booming for Moroccan fertilizers
Granular phosphate exports from Morocco surged 34% year-on-year over the first four months of the year, according to the Foreign Trade Bureau. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Positive Handy bulk signals limited to the East (30-May-2017)

India becomes main driver in global coal demandSupramax
Analysts note that India’s imports of Australian coking coal have grown enough to be comparable with those to China and Japan. India already accounts for up to 25% of Australia’s monthly coking coal exports. (p. 1)

Encouraging Handy trends limited to the East
The only highlight seems to be the Handysize market in the East. A 30,000 dwt vessel was taken for an Aussie RV in the low US$ 7,000s daily. (p. 2)

Sulphur regs loom while bunkers stay old school
…now some 84% of bunkers is still heavy fuel oil (HFO). Long-term investment decisions will have to be taken by ship owners, operators, financiers and refiners to reduce local pollutant emissions. (p. 3)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Capesizes starting to bounce back (10-May-2017)

capesize vessel capesizesTrends are ascendant for the Capesizes for the first time in nearly two weeks with average rates up by 4-5% at midweek. There is said to be more action be­low the surface with a likelihood of more fixtures by the afternoon. For now, Pacific ore voyages are the main deals with Dampier/Qingdao steady at US$ 6.2/mt on tonnage of 170,000mt. The Pacific round for Capesizes jumped US$ 700 to US$ 13,000 via Japan. TARVs grain US$ 250 to reach US$ 11,500 daily via Conti­nent where general sentiment is lightly buoyant.

Panamax activity has grown modestly on the Conti­nental front haul into the middle US$ 13,000s, but the market itself remains broadly flat. Trans-Atlantic rounds have stabilized at about US$ 7,250 daily but are under pressure with a downside. South America, some brokers say, is returning to the market as grain purchasing resumes, thus boosting front haul trades. The ECSA Kamsarmaxes to NoPac are securing APS rates near US$ 12,000 daily plus US$ 500,000 BB.

Modest indications of recovery in the Atlantic at the start of the week start to build some momentum in Handy bulk markets by midweek on signs that USG front hauls are on the way back up as upwards of US$ 20,000 daily is secured to CJK on 58,000 dwt ships. Also from the USG, trans-Atlantic trips to the Continent have also been showing signs of improve­ment with middle teens of up to US$ 15,000 daily obtainable on Ultramaxes on UKC-Med redelivery, sources report. The South American exports are still sporadic with some brokers describing the market as “catch as catch can” given the lack of consistent trend from the ECSA agri-prod spot markets. At any rate, Handysizes of 32,000 dwt have been securing lower teens of US$ 12,500 daily from ECSA into the Far East, we are told, which is a significant upgrade from last week. Then again, we also hear that pressure is growing on this run with one Supra recently unable to secure anything higher than US$ 12,000 DOP.

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Global growth to support dry cargo recovery (2-May-2017)

Glimmers of hope in Q1 suggest improved Q2 Shanghai global growth
Dry bulk markets emerged in early 2017 as more robust than many had expected with global growth leading experts to hastily upgrade their forecasts for the coming year. An early year revival in iron ore and coal imports to the Far East, driven by a firming in global steel prices, in addition to a recovery in niche mineral markets—notably the lifting of Indonesia’s mineral export ban—have seen a Pacific-led rebound following the Chinese New Year in early February. China’s ban on North Korean coal imports in February was also seen as an encouraging sign that Chinese coal imports would have to extend seaborne trade in order to compensate. North Korea is China’s fourth biggest source of coal, after Mongolia, with 22.5 Mt shipped in 2016 (up from 19.6 Mt the year before), thus a not-inconsiderable contributor to China’s energy mix. (p. 1)

Emerging markets return after six-year slump
Sustained growth in India’s GDP, steady near 7% in the final quarter of 2016, is also seen as an encouraging signal for eastern-based dry cargo transport growth. China and India, most notably, have moved to shift their coal sourcing away from domestic supplies and increasingly toward import shipments. The Atlantic market, while buoyed by new enthusiasm in the East, has been steady thanks to seasonal demand from South America. It remains to be seen, brokers say, whether the Atlantic will mount a similar rally as the Pacific that would con­ceivably push freight earnings to new highs where they would stay through the year, boosted by global growth. The ideal scenario for owners would be a push in Atlantic grain arriving with such strength in Q2 that it supplements the steadier Pacific market, leading to a virtuous cycle of continual earnings improvements. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Secondhand containership sales rising (25-Apr-2017)

Corrective days ahead for Panamaxes?containership
Technical analysis of futures markets last week were already suggesting Panamaxes were poised to enter a corrective phase and the start of this week seems to give that theory more credence with little fresh business emerging to prop up freights. (p. 1)

Attraction remains for Supras into the US Gulf
The USG stays tempting for Supras and Ultras whilst the Handysizes still trail their larger brethren. (p. 1)

Notable rise in containership sales YTD
Activity in the secondhand containership market has been considerably stronger in 2017 than in 2016 with the first quarter of the year seeing around 59 containerships sold (261,911 TEU) compared to just 28 containerships (79,126 TEU) sold second¬hand in the same quarter last year. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Southeast Asia keeping Handies busy (10-Apr-2017)

Fresh demand on inter-Continent tradesSoutheast Asia
Inter-Continent business is looking stronger with US$ 13,500 daily (and even US$ 14,000) on steels from the Baltic to the Adriatic on 28,000 dwt ships. (p. 1)

Coasters: Azov offers widen as activity slows
The Sea of Azov coaster market is, by all signs, stable, though indications are—brokers warn—quite variable, depending on the reporting source. There have been, for instance, quite a few indications for 3,000mt wheat parcels from Yeisk to Marmara at rates in a wide range of US$ 19-22/mt. (p. 1)

SE Asia remains crucial for eastern Handies
Stronger rates have been seen from SE Asia with 32-36,000 dwt vessels getting US$ 8,000 and higher on trips from Vietnam to Northern China. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Rebound in eastbound Panamax trade (07-Apr-2017)

Recovery seen in Panamax front hauls
Panamax front hauls get a modest revival at the end of the week as a surge in eastbound demand from South America and the Continent helps push rates back up by some US$ 500 into the high teens of US$ 17-18,000 on UKC delivery—or even up to US$ 20,000 on ECI redel from the Continent. (p. 1)

Black Sea Handies looking bubbly with grains
Handysize grain stems continue emerging from the Black Sea trade area, with Bunge quoting 25,000mt from Nikolayev to Morocco, talking US$ 12-13/mt basis free d/a at loading. (p. 1)

Indian Ocean highlight for eastern Handies
The buoyancy in the Indian Ocean market seems to be unbroken. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Atlantic bulkers in concerted recovery (29-Mar-2017)

Baltic Dry Index

Dry Bulk Rate Trend

Strong momentum for Atlantic Panamaxes
Positive trends accelerate for the western Panamax market with strong gains in trans-Atlantic trades pushing the TARV benchmark over US$ 11,000 after a number of weeks in the four digits. (p. 1)

Baltic-based Handy bulk rates ascendant
Off the Baltic, a 37,000 dwt was booked for a cargo to South Africa equivalent to US$ 13,250 daily. (p. 1)

Coasters: Northern rates rise as Q2 approaches
With weather warming as well as the new quarter approaching, business activity has continued to warm up in the northern European coaster markets, according to brokers, with owners finally securing upgrades in their freight offers. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Atlantic Handy owners maintain advantage in talks (22-Mar-2017)

Owners retain negotiating edge in talks on Atlantic Handiessupramax
Momentum remains on the side of the Handy bulk owners with upgrades afforded on eastward runs from UKC and Black Sea into the high US$ 13,000s daily, despite only sporadic business on that route. (p. 1)

South America remains key driver for inter-Atlantic trade
From South Brazil, a 39,000 dwt was proposed US$ 11,500 for a trip to the Med-Black Sea. (p. 2)

Approach of Q2 hastens short sea urgency in charterers
The upcoming quarterly switch has upped owner urgency to fix business while they can in Q1. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.