The fall in spot freights has, by all signs, accelerated over the course of July with owners no longer able to depend on securing last-done levels save the very rarest of special agreements. The seasonal culprits of holiday-driven demand drift and a wider slowing in manufacturing operations that fuel that demand are both gaining force to combine into a bearish vortex that are putting charterers in the driver’s seat and owners on the sidelines. While week-on-week dis­counts have yet to exceed EUR 0.5/mt on any observed trade route, this is still an expanding aver­age differential when compared to the EUR 0.25/mt limit seen until just a few weeks ago. Westward-bound freights from the Baltic States to ARAG have fallen into the EUR 21-23/mt range after trading in the EUR 22-24/mt range at the end of June and as much as EUR 25-28/mt in the first quarter of the year.

Indeed, southbound freights from the upper Baltic into the ARAG were until recently still fetch­ing levels of over EUR 30/mt while the owners are now happy to take anything near EUR 25-26/mt for general cargoes and high EUR 20s/mt for non-fer­rous shipments of circa 5,000mt. Southbound rates from the German Baltic to the Spanish Med are still getting low EUR 40s to high EUR 30s/mt in most cases, but charterers are turning the screws here as well with EUR 40s/mt looking increasingly unlikely by the end of July. Short North Sea transits from WCUK to ARAG are unlikely to fetch anything over EUR 15/mt under ideal conditions are more likely to settle for EUR 13-14/mt rates based on generals of 4,000mt. Shipowners are hoping the markets will settle at a re-balanced lower level as soon as possible.

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