Rapid Reversal Ahead of Bayram Holidays in the Azov Sea (7 August 2019)

Despite anticipating a correction after the run-up of mid-summer, Azov owners say they were none­theless caught off guard by the magnitude of the crash in rates seen in the past two weeks, taking an even more extreme turn in the past week, which saw rates fall by some US$ 4-5/mt week-on-week and sometimes as much as US$6/mt. Average grain rates for Azov/Marmara are reported at US$ 23/mt or some US$ 3-4/mt lower than a week before, while grain rates for 5,000mt (46′) ex-Rostov to Marmara have been trading as low as US$ 19-20/mt, repre­senting losses of US$ 6/mt in just the transition between months. The upcoming Bayram holidays in Turkey and across the Black Sea in the Muslim world is not likely to help sentiment as owners prepare for an upcoming period of bearish sentiment and rate reversals. Black Sea rates have been somewhat stead­ier by comparison with the Kherson/Marmara rates holding to mid teens of US$ 16/mt or thereabouts.

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