BMTI’s Dry Cargo Market Viewpoint (11 June 2018)

Sentiment has taken over the Capesizes, but in the positive way that owners have no problem with accepting even as the party looked like it might have ended by the weekend. With losses of US$ 1,000 seen on the Pacific rounds on Friday and average rates slipping back into the high teens of US$ 18-19,000 daily, there is speculation that a new bearish cycle could be awakening. On the other hand, we have seen such short-lived corrections before, and owners hope this is the case this time as well. Brazil/China voyages had been pushing toward US$ 20/mt, but no it would seem that any owner who managed to fix above US$ 19/mt in the recent fren­zy should consider themselves fortunate. TARVs have levelled out in the US$ 17-18,000 daily range.

Period TCs really is the name of the game for the Panamaxes at this point with a resurgence of activity in long-term time charters having forced charterers to show their cards and put upwards of US$ 14,500 daily and higher on medium period deals on 82,000 dwt vessels via Southeast Asia. Short period on the standard tonnage is also going for strong rates in the US$ 13,500 daily vicinity on 3-5 months of trading, though some brokers say the enthusiasm has cooled a bit on period charters. North Atlantic-positioned owners say that open tonnage is tightening there.

Even with much of Europe in Athens for Posidonia, the loss of Handy traders seemed to have had little negative impact on trading on the other side of the Atlantic with the USG revival full steam ahead and upwards of US$ 300 added to front hauls and UK-Continent redelivery rates from the USG on Ultramax vessels hitting rates in excess of US$ 20,000 daily and US$ 15,250 daily, respectively, with no let up in sight.

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